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GM: Converging on Sustainability, the Time Is Now


October 2006
 Filed under: GENERAL MOTORS CORPORATE Car News | GENERAL MOTORS CORPORATE Headlines

Larry Burns: Vice President, Research & Development and Strategic Planning

Detroit, Michigan, 2006-10-18 -- Larry Burns: Vice President, Research & Development and Strategic Planning, Detroit, Michigan: It’s been 120 years since Karl Benz drove his patented motorcar out of the barn, and despite a steady flow of technology advances since then, there has never been a time more ripe for automotive change than today.
* Not only because of the emergence of a host of ever-more promising technologies …
* … but also because of the incredible geopolitical pressures driving change in our world today.
* Now is the time to face reality .
* Given the large impact that transportation has on energy consumption and emissions, as an industry, we simply must do everything we can, within reason, to decrease petroleum use, reduce its impact on the environment, and increase the world’s energy independence.
* Those who have any doubts about this have only to reflect on the many diverse factors that today can impact the price and availability of petroleum.
* Consider just some of the major ones over the last five years:
* The September 11 terrorist attacks in New York City, Washington, D.C., and Pennsylvania.
* The bombings that followed 9-11 – in Bali in October 2002.
* In Madrid in March 2004.
* In London in July 2005.
* And in Mumbai, India this July.
* We’ve experienced the Iraq War …
* … electricity blackouts like the one that affected significant portions of eastern North America in August 2003.
* … Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and their impact on the Gulf Coast. Followed, thankfully, by no serious hurricanes this year despite forecasts to the contrary.
* We’ve seen interruptions in the flow of oil from Alaska, as BP repairs its pipeline.
* We’ve witnessed the nationalization of Venezuela’s petroleum industry …
* … and Ukraine’s dispute with Russia over natural gas prices.
* There is continued conflict in the Middle East.
* TIME Magazine is telling us to “Be Worried, Be Very Worried” about global climate issues.
* And the state of California is already acting on its own on global warming.
* We are seeing the rise of China as a major economic and global power …
* … and tremendous economic growth in India and other parts of Asia as well.
* Is it any wonder that fuel prices continue to fluctuate?
* Or that we have concerns about its availability?
* Over the last two years, the price of oil has ranged from 55 to 75 dollars per barrel, and the price of unleaded gasoline has ranged from under 2 to over 3 dollars per gallon, in part because of events like those I just reviewed.
* And, as a result, our industry faces tremendous pressure to make our vehicles sustainable.
* In fact, as an industry, we have the responsibility to ask ourselves these questions:
* Is automotive transportation sustainable as we know it today …
* … from an energy perspective?
o Although the auto industry has doubled vehicle fuel economy in the past 30 years, almost all of the energy used to power automobiles continues to be derived from petroleum.
o Today, Japan imports virtually all of the petroleum it uses, the U.S. imports about 65 percent, and Europe imports around 60 percent.
o As petroleum consumption grows in developing countries in line with economic growth, the demand for oil will increase.
o In fact, Wolfgang Reitzle, chief executive of Germany's Linde Group, recently noted that if every person in China were to enjoy the same standard of living as in America, then an additional 81 million barrels of oil would have to be produced every day in the world. This is about the same number of barrels produced daily now, which means oil production would have to double to meet demand.
* Is automotive transportation sustainable …
* … from an environmental perspective?
o Although, in the U.S., tailpipe emissions from automobiles are down more than 98 percent compared to the unregulated 1960s, governments around the world are clearly focused on achieving zero emissions. And, given the concerns about global climate change, they are strongly advocating significant reductions in CO 2 emissions.
* Is automotive transportation sustainable …
* … from a safety perspective?
o Thanks to traffic safety improvements, my daughters are three times less likely to die in an automobile crash than I was when I received my driver’s license in 1967 …
o … but there are still too many deaths on our roadways.
o The U.S. has over 43,000 fatalities annually.
o And, on the world’s roads, an estimated 1.2 million people are killed and up to 50 million are injured each year.
* Is automotive transportation sustainable …
o … from a congestion perspective?
o Today, there are 6.5 million people in the world, and by 2020 there will be over 7.5 billion.
o Three-quarters of these people will live in urban areas, up from 50 percent today, so you can imagine the challenge with respect to traffic throughput.
* Is automotive transportation sustainable …
* … from an affordability perspective?
o In Europe, the decline in real car prices and increases in per capita incomes since the mid-1990s have led to a 25 percent improvement in affordability, while affordability in the U.S. has increased by roughly double that amount.
o The challenge is to make automobiles affordable in the less developed regions of the world.
* Is automotive transportation sustainable …
* … from an equality of access perspective?
o Today, only 12 percent of the people in the world own automobiles – 88 percent do not.
o As an industry, we must work to make our vehicles environmentally and economically sustainable so that we can realize the huge growth opportunity that these numbers represent …
o … and extend the very significant benefits of auto ownership to many more people around the globe.
* Is automotive transportation sustainable …
* … from a fashion, fun, and entertainment perspective?
o Fashion, fun, and entertainment are the lifeblood of our industry –
o – the automobile is more than a product; it is a statement about WHO I AM.
o Our customers want to be able to buy vehicles that provide the driving excitement and fun that they expect, that inspire their passion, and that give them pride of ownership.
* Achieving sustainability is a huge challenge, but it is also a great opportunity.
* And now is the time to seize this opportunity.
* While the industry has faced big challenges before, it has never been more ready to meet them.
* Today’s automakers have an extensive palette of technology options from which to create our future vehicles.
* In the powertrain arena, these options run the gamut from advanced engine and transmission technologies and alternate fuels, to hybridization, electrification, and fuel cells.
* These new propulsion technologies, in turn, are driving the need for new and better electrical and electronic systems, controls, and connected vehicle technologies, which together will revolutionize …
o … how our vehicles operate,
o … how we interact with them,
o … and how they communicate with each other and the outside world.
* Alongside these advances, a host of new lighter-weight and smart materials are changing the look and feel of our cars and trucks, making them more fuel efficient, increasing their functionality, and driving innovation in more conventional materials to enable these materials to remain competitive.
* Individually, these technologies promise to significantly increase industry growth.
* But with their convergence, a new automotive DNA is emerging …
* … a DNA that promises to be sustainable, and better in all aspects than the internal combustion engine, petroleum, and mechanical control genetics that have characterized automobiles for the past century.
* This new DNA gives us the ability to completely reinvent the automobile …
* … making it more fun to drive,
* … enhancing its value,
* … and, importantly, changing it from a means to get from point A to point B …
* … to a node on a global network that connects the flow of transportation, information, and power.
* The automobile’s transformation from a stand-alone, largely mechanical device to one that is electrical and connected will be every bit as momentous as the transition from horses to horsepower …
* … and will result in a vehicle that is fundamentally better by every measure – whether you are talking about performance, design, energy efficiency, or safety.
* The point here is that vehicle owners won’t be faced with tradeoffs. In fact, they will get greater value at an affordable price.
* These will be vehicles that excite and delight our customers.
* And this is key – because advanced technology vehicles, no matter how good, must be embraced by a mass market of consumers if they are to have an impact and be successful.
* As I noted earlier, the auto industry today has entered an extremely exciting period that offers tremendous growth potential.
* This potential stems from an almost universal aspiration around the world for automobile ownership – a dynamic that is very similar to the explosive growth of the Internet.
* Like the Internet, the automobile is an enabler. My automobile gives me freedom – the autonomy to go where I want, when I want, with anyone I wish, carrying whatever I need …
* Also, like the Internet, it is a key facet of accessibility, significantly increasing my access to other people, places, and products.
* As the world’s population rises, and as global economic growth provides more and more people with the means to buy a car or truck, ownership rates and real numbers of automobiles are projected to increase substantially.
* In fact, by the year 2020, there could be nearly 1.1 billion automobiles on our roadways.
* That’s enough vehicles to circle the earth more than 125 times!
* However, it reflects just a 15% ownership rate for the world’s population.
* Given our growing concerns about energy, emissions, global climate change, safety, and congestion, what must our industry do to continue to extend the benefits of automobile ownership to growing numbers of people – and do it in an environmentally and economically sustainable way?
* A simpler way to put this would be to ask, if you could create the perfect future for the vehicle, what would it be?
* The answer to this question involves exchanging the current DNA of the automobile for a new DNA –
* – the internal combustion engine for electric propulsion …
* … petroleum for electricity and hydrogen …
* … mechanical systems for electrical and electronic systems ...
* … and stand-alone systems for connected vehicle technologies.
* GM’s OnStar system already provides remarkable features like automatic crash notification, remote door unlock, vehicle diagnostics, and turn-by-turn navigation.
* In the future, we will be seeing even more advanced functions, such as real-time traffic information and collision warning and avoidance.
* And because these systems will be communications-based, we will be able to deploy them more quickly than traditional infrastructure technologies, at less cost, and on a global basis.
* To demonstrate the powerful opportunity that the convergence of these technologies presents, GM developed the Chevrolet Sequel.
* Sequel is the most advanced technology vehicle ever built. It is the third stage in GM's "Reinvention of the Automobile" after Autonomy and Hy-wire.
* Sequel is specifically designed around hydrogen fuel cell technology. The propulsion system combines the fuel cell with three electric motors and a lithium-ion battery to give jet-like acceleration characteristics and all-wheel drive with side-to-side torque control.
* The chassis systems for braking, steering, and damping are all electronically controlled and actuated to give shorter stopping distances and more responsive steering.
* These technologies are housed under the floor to give a stable, low center of gravity. On the outside, we have an attractive, lightweight aluminum crossover-style body.
* The result of combining these technologies into a purpose-built vehicle is the world's first 300-mile-range, zero-emission automobile that is designed to meet crash standards and that reinvents the three basic modes of driving – acceleration, braking, and steering.
* This is a real vehicle, capable of matching and surpassing anything on the road today, and it produces no emissions except water vapor.
* Sequel truly is a vehicle of the future and embodies the fundamental changes that can be realized with the new automotive DNA.
* This new DNA will ensure that our industry can continue to extend the significant benefits of automobile ownership to many more people around the globe … in a way that is sustainable.
* Beyond the automobile itself, this new DNA offers dramatic opportunities for the industry to reinvent the automotive business model.
* By keeping our vehicles quite simple, storing hydrogen and electricity on board the vehicle, and using electric drive and fuel cells, we have the opportunity to use every energy pathway – fossil fuels, natural gas, and all of the renewables such as biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, and solar energy.
* This diversity of feedstocks will increase energy independence around the world because each locality can select the energy option that works best for it.
* Our vehicles will emit zero emissions … and when the hydrogen or electricity is made from a renewable source, the entire system – from energy generation to torque at the wheels – will be zero emissions.
* Electric propulsion and fuel cells also provide improved energy efficiency compared to an internal combustion engine.
* Electric propulsion will replace complex gasoline, diesel, and hybrid systems with a single system that has many fewer overall parts, and only 1/10th as many moving parts, as a conventional powertrain system.
* It also enables the move from mechanical to largely electrical systems and controls that can be tailored with software.
* The design flexibility enabled by scalable fuel cells, electric batteries, and electronic controls will drive new vehicle designs and provide the potential to lower costs.
* And we can also simplify the supply chain because of the reduced complexity of the system.
* When you connect all the dots, this is a truly compelling opportunity to reinvent the automobile and the automobile business, and accelerate industry growth.
* Automobiles of the future will not only provide personal mobility, they will be the catalyst for an even more powerful convergence, as vehicles quite literally become nodes on the information highway, the electric power grid, and the transportation network.
* After all, our vehicles are parked 90 percent of the time and the power-generating capacity of just 4 percent of the U.S. car parc equals that of the U.S. electric grid!
* And since we are usually within 100 feet of our cars when they are parked, it would be very possible to be wirelessly tethered to our cars, and use the information processing capability on the vehicle while this capability is also connected to a global computing grid.
* The business potential created by this convergence is truly awe-inspiring.
* Imagine the convenience of having our vehicles be mobile power sources – providing electrical power in case of need, and having the potential to connect to and supplement the grid.
* Imagine using all the added capability on the vehicle to create all-new vehicle segments …
* … for the masses,
* … for people with disabilities,
* … for the very young, recognizing that 30 percent of the world’s population will be under the age of 15 in 2020,
* …and for the aged, who will make up 10 percent of the world’s population in 2020, over 15 percent of the U.S. population, almost 20 percent of the population of Europe, and over 25 percent of the Japanese population. In these regions, many older drivers will have the financial wherewithal to buy vehicles that can safely extend their driving years.
* The new automotive DNA will give us future vehicles that are true works of art, with compelling designs that inspire passion and touch our emotions, even more so than today.
* They will be propelled by all-electric drive … so they will deliver thrilling driving dynamics and be unbelievably exciting to drive.
* They will be smart and connected – integrated with other vehicles and the infrastructure.
* In fact, the rapid progression from stand-alone safety and convenience features to integrated driver-assistance systems will make autonomous driving a reality.
* Not only will our vehicles be able to exchange information with nearby vehicles, and react to and avoid crashes, they will be able to chauffeur us when we don’t feel like driving!
* They will be built using intelligent materials that provide functionality to the molecular level.
* Today, we already have magneto-rheological fluid-controlled shock absorbers and radiator fan drives.
* And we are developing a host of advanced materials like shape-memory alloys and electro-active polymers for a variety of applications.
* But despite all of this added functionality, the reinvented automobile will remain affordable because manufacturers will be able to hold down costs with simpler designs, fewer parts, less material, and agile manufacturing.
* With the enormous potential for innovation in our industry, I really don’t think that is expecting too much!
* By reinventing the automobile using the new automotive DNA – made possible by the convergence of technology – we will make our vehicles even greater works of art, power, fun, and access than today’s cars and trucks.
* To sum it all up, GM’s vision of the perfect vehicle is one that:
o emits only water vapor,
o uses a renewable energy that can be produced from a variety of sources,
o doesn’t crash,
o requires limited or no regulation,
o connects me to everything,
o is affordable,
o and delivers a driving and ownership experience that inspires my passion.
* It is imperative that we build these future vehicles – everything that is happening in our world today tells us we must.
* We just need to collectively see it and create the collective will to act on it.
* You are the scientists and engineers and leaders who must make this happen.
* So, today, I would like to propose that we set an agenda for action …
* … to accelerate the convergence of technology …
* … and create and implement the new automotive DNA.
* Now is the time to face the realities of our world .
* Now is the time to turn long term into near term .
* Now is the time to reinvent the automobile and transform our industry .
* Together, we can make the automotive future real,
* … accelerate sustainable industry growth,
* … enhance customer value,
* … benefit society,
* … and deliver the tremendous benefits of automobile ownership to a significantly greater percentage of the world’s people.

Source: GM

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